Ledger / Prediction #3623 · token · 1H

Will $NR still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 3% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 17m ago. X link. No hot term. Creator launched 7 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-14 04:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 05:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 04:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.03407773968429842
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "ESE7sTwYiqvAFfyHYLTy1wS1q4KvcnV3EHbAU3D9A9S7",
    "name": "NVIDIA Run:ai",
    "symbol": "NR",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 17,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3008.5136884861977,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 7
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 585,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.03407773968429842
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 05:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.035

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-14T04:13:18.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3009.5060776446576,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3061.194109740027,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3008.5136884861977,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6017.027376972395
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 3% that $NR would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,010, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $NR (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashdbf4d7b4209c8cc586889fda3f54b48ba62dd0bac86b9d304ce82f5e426ded4a

Previous hash56d2acb00f6b50e6df1603a05c39f5092e9b31d6cf4bec5f8e066e04eb654984