Ledger / Prediction #3626 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 68% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

44 of 1477 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (35 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 1.94×.

Made2026-10-14 05:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 06:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 04:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.32621275822262413,
      "momentum": 0.6640661102749313,
      "diversity": 0.054545454545454494
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6780499007819872
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.05849056603773585,
    "share60": 0.030108254397834912,
    "total15": 264,
    "total60": 1477,
    "momentum": 1.9426754292982829,
    "diversity": 0.7954545454545454,
    "launches15": 15,
    "launches60": 44,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 35
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 175,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918669444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9918669444444445
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6780499007819872
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 06:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.104

Log loss0.389

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.05663430420711974,
  "shareRatio": 1.838474978485931,
  "totalAfter": 1236,
  "shareBefore": 0.030687124749833223,
  "totalBefore": 1499,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 70,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 46
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 68% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.07% → 5.66% (+85%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "cat" (1H). momentum contributed +0.66 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1348881f9d9135a0fe64bde71b438a610615f4fd175c9eb6ce079e53c5ff60ec

Previous hash19097e17647d1c577316e074236da3fceb41e10c1462b1a0b9e5471d7362e70d