Ledger / Prediction #3631 · narrative · 6H

Will "lion" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 12% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

32 of 1477 launches in the last hour referenced "lion" (19 distinct creators, rank #10). Last 15m momentum 0.09×.

Made2026-10-14 05:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 11:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 04:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.27844469855484394,
      "momentum": -2.455671994373712,
      "diversity": -0.1875
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.1239756070927793
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "lion",
    "rank60": 10,
    "share15": 0.0018867924528301887,
    "share60": 0.02198917456021651,
    "total15": 264,
    "total60": 1477,
    "momentum": 0.0858055152394775,
    "diversity": 0.59375,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 32,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 19
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 175,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918669444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9986444907407407
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.1239756070927793
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 11:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.015

Log loss0.132

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0012683201803833145,
  "shareRatio": 0.33676375168085276,
  "totalAfter": 7096,
  "shareBefore": 0.0039261876717707105,
  "totalBefore": 10188,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 9,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 40
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 12% that "lion" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.39% → 0.13% (-68%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "lion" (6H). momentum contributed -2.46 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7037a7641a8ddeb9410b41708a25b8f2efa7d118f3a812013ee2efec1949307d

Previous hash5f8793c5df861c719c52bd4d9e2b0459844c4d7d6a687f0588e709002dbc5b45