Will "launchpad" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

9 of 1477 launches in the last hour referenced "launchpad" (5 distinct creators, rank #75). Last 15m momentum 2.05×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.08816799973531786,
      "momentum": 0.7201864454107977,
      "diversity": -0.23333333333333328
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5256062732034155
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "launchpad",
    "rank60": 75,
    "share15": 0.013207547169811321,
    "share60": 0.0064276048714479025,
    "total15": 264,
    "total60": 1477,
    "momentum": 2.054816285998014,
    "diversity": 0.5555555555555556,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 9,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 175,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918669444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9986444907407407
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5256062732034155
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.005636978579481398,
  "shareRatio": 0.8366175595524709,
  "totalAfter": 7096,
  "shareBefore": 0.006772673733804476,
  "totalBefore": 10188,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 40,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 69
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity