Will "usepaid" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 25% → FADES PARTIAL
What GENESIS knew, before
41 of 1477 launches in the last hour referenced "usepaid" (21 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.20×.
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3156201231405311,
"momentum": -1.6015130436065634,
"diversity": -0.28536585365853656
},
"rawProbability": 0.25244218641395716
},
"features": {
"term": "usepaid",
"rank60": 6,
"share15": 0.005660377358490566,
"share60": 0.02807848443843031,
"total15": 264,
"total60": 1477,
"momentum": 0.20159127074335076,
"diversity": 0.5121951219512195,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 41,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 21
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 175,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9918669444444445,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996611226851851
}{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.25244218641395716
}P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
{
"shareAfter": 0.006627901246735328,
"shareRatio": 0.9545327491476377,
"totalAfter": 40586,
"shareBefore": 0.006945079045965457,
"totalBefore": 43772,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 269,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 304
}Predicted 25% that "usepaid" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.69% → 0.66% (-5%). PARTIAL.
— "usepaid" stayed roughly flat over 24H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
56e6a9821ebd84c5a12a341f58c94a07ac9faea6e5bfa079da297595a1bf94618b388360ea8c0a7a4245c4d569253042be31a5adc3f3ca0e6aa58190acdf19fd