Will "discovering" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 27% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

11 of 1477 launches in the last hour referenced "discovering" (7 distinct creators, rank #43). Last 15m momentum 0.24×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.11826860405464054,
      "momentum": -1.4167789404072246,
      "diversity": -0.13636363636363638
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.2655269450920325
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "discovering",
    "rank60": 43,
    "share15": 0.0018867924528301887,
    "share60": 0.007780784844384303,
    "total15": 264,
    "total60": 1477,
    "momentum": 0.2424938474159147,
    "diversity": 0.6363636363636364,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 11,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 175,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918669444444445,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996611226851851
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.2655269450920325
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00009855615236781156,
  "shareRatio": 0.15407114874924766,
  "totalAfter": 40586,
  "shareBefore": 0.000708215297450425,
  "totalBefore": 43772,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 31
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity