GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #364 · narrative · 1H

Will "vamped" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 65% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

11 of 2460 launches in the last hour referenced "vamped" (10 distinct creators, rank #138). Last 15m momentum 1.81×.

Made2026-10-09 22:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 23:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 21:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.11826860405464054,
      "momentum": 0.5915319876322812,
      "diversity": 0.19090909090909086
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6458186536308657
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "vamped",
    "rank60": 138,
    "share15": 0.008442776735459663,
    "share60": 0.004672897196261682,
    "total15": 532,
    "total60": 2460,
    "momentum": 1.806754221388368,
    "diversity": 0.9090909090909091,
    "launches15": 4,
    "launches60": 11,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 10
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 455,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946558333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9946558333333333
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6458186536308657
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 23:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.417
Log loss1.038
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.04080622814541136,
  "totalAfter": 2635,
  "shareBefore": 0.004448038819247877,
  "totalBefore": 2473,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 11
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 65% that "vamped" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.44% → 0.00% (-100%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "vamped" (1H). momentum contributed +0.59 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8c24bc0631e3351dc6fd41d3a5917e9573c0aaff440c9d41008548481a17d700
Previous hash34dc25c241da4e3cd82be1ce22daf082b252833fd43e0478835aaba7969a1af0