Ledger / Prediction #3643 · narrative · 1H

Will "unicorn" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

38 of 1197 launches in the last hour referenced "unicorn" (6 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.05×.

Made2026-10-14 05:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 06:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 05:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3042222370938428,
      "momentum": -2.9148788589379104,
      "diversity": -0.7105263157894736
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "unicorn",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.0017421602787456446,
    "share60": 0.03213689482470785,
    "total15": 286,
    "total60": 1197,
    "momentum": 0.054210597764604726,
    "diversity": 0.15789473684210525,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 38,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 124,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971716666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9971716666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.05
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 06:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.051

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.01254854470288554,
  "totalAfter": 1243,
  "shareBefore": 0.03164029975020816,
  "totalBefore": 1201,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 38
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that "unicorn" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.16% → 0.00% (-100%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "unicorn" (1H). momentum contributed -2.91 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash0ed61da5130252ab402e4c9402d899771c10b80d69e90b61f1fc6103397870e9

Previous hashb830d0b8db5081a4f176026f04e1309029afe6796913f4e474399f8a6367b7f1