Ledger / Prediction #3645 · narrative · 6H

Will "claim" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 16% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

28 of 1197 launches in the last hour referenced "claim" (5 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.22×.

Made2026-10-14 05:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 11:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 05:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2584149896611655,
      "momentum": -1.5155124162506668,
      "diversity": -0.6857142857142856
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.1597662659477152
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "claim",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.005226480836236934,
    "share60": 0.02378964941569282,
    "total15": 286,
    "total60": 1197,
    "momentum": 0.21969558041445078,
    "diversity": 0.17857142857142858,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 28,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 124,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971716666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9995286111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.1597662659477152
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 11:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.026

Log loss0.174

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0006970584134950509,
  "shareRatio": 0.218552906429417,
  "totalAfter": 7173,
  "shareBefore": 0.0034573927191376857,
  "totalBefore": 9834,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 34
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 16% that "claim" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.35% → 0.07% (-80%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "claim" (6H). momentum contributed -1.52 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashdc41d3be243fce581745004a2ce9a14ed051a83d67bcc013c8b19b6aa359ad0c

Previous hash17c96664b1f86f8754e244e1c2e8a878802921c46634f28fa6708b45310bb173