Ledger / Prediction #3649 · narrative · 24H

Will "claim" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 22% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

28 of 1197 launches in the last hour referenced "claim" (5 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.22×.

Made2026-10-14 05:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-15 05:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 05:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2584149896611655,
      "momentum": -1.5155124162506668,
      "diversity": -0.6857142857142856
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.21901668768446897
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "claim",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.005226480836236934,
    "share60": 0.02378964941569282,
    "total15": 286,
    "total60": 1197,
    "momentum": 0.21969558041445078,
    "diversity": 0.17857142857142858,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 28,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 5
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 124,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971716666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998821527777778
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.21901668768446897
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-15 05:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.048

Log loss0.247

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0016752482077307777,
  "shareRatio": 0.8916266528111226,
  "totalAfter": 40591,
  "shareBefore": 0.001881208561793113,
  "totalBefore": 43589,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 68,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 82
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 22% that "claim" would gain share over 24H. Its share of launches moved 0.19% → 0.17% (-11%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "claim" (24H). momentum contributed -1.52 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash855d53ac9309347ba4c63cf5704b188dbc0b0040393f418f297d54e68005b8fe

Previous hashbf2450853d1ba6d946e2774554ff1ab56baa2a23c37135fca177265d58917429