Ledger / Prediction #365 · narrative · 6H

Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 50% → ACCELERATES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

176 of 2460 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (133 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.90×.

Made2026-10-09 22:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 04:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 21:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.5341569123906077,
      "momentum": -0.10255992611082614,
      "diversity": 0.0068181818181818786
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5017226476011187
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "quantum",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.0647279549718574,
    "share60": 0.07171881349045103,
    "total15": 532,
    "total60": 2460,
    "momentum": 0.9025240633753036,
    "diversity": 0.7556818181818182,
    "launches15": 34,
    "launches60": 176,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 133
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 455,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946558333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991093055555555
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5017226476011187
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 04:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeACCELERATED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.248

Log loss0.690

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.06623516720604099,
  "shareRatio": 1.3594070390992585,
  "totalAfter": 13905,
  "shareBefore": 0.048717284270536405,
  "totalBefore": 15436,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 921,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 752
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 50% that "quantum" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 4.87% → 6.62% (+36%). CORRECT.

— volume pointed the right way on "quantum" (6H). volume contributed +0.53 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash96f968d7da057a8b126a33347f10a52c822330fe03fa40f0374faced129d4b37

Previous hash8c24bc0631e3351dc6fd41d3a5917e9573c0aaff440c9d41008548481a17d700