Will "hien" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 42% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

25 of 1197 launches in the last hour referenced "hien" (8 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 1.23×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.24141568686511503,
      "momentum": 0.2051511312936578,
      "diversity": -0.516
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4170934484379609
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "hien",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.02613240418118467,
    "share60": 0.021285475792988316,
    "total15": 286,
    "total60": 1197,
    "momentum": 1.2277105964336954,
    "diversity": 0.32,
    "launches15": 7,
    "launches60": 25,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 8
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 124,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9971716666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998821527777778
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4170934484379609
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0,
  "shareRatio": 0.02026145127583463,
  "totalAfter": 40591,
  "shareBefore": 0.0005964807634953773,
  "totalBefore": 43589,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 0,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 26
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity