Ledger / Prediction #3656 · token · 6H

Will $IRS still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 6% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 27m ago. X link. Rides hot term "wallet". Creator launched 67 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-14 05:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 11:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 05:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0.2,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.05496948633657418
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "7tShexhQCe9Ha9e5qfEdSWQAhQdoXMGRUJc7KtZpkPMM",
    "name": "I Require Sol",
    "symbol": "IRS",
    "hotTerms": [
      "wallet"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 27,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 421,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3086.077342501581,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 67
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 394,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.05496948633657418
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 11:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.003

Log loss0.057

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": null,
  "marketCapUsd": 3086.077342501581,
  "athMarketCapUsd": null,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3086.077342501581,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6172.154685003162
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 6% that $IRS would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,086, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $IRS (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf0a3c0e1ec2a27b33f36828776968f080bfd2e830615b1f4709136fd5ca4f58c

Previous hashcd377fb6deca32db59782a637d711092f5f8a1bbac8d05ccbb37b0959a258b34