Ledger / Prediction #3657 · narrative · 1H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 51% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

70 of 1230 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (37 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.24×.

Made2026-10-14 06:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 07:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 05:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.39585859944228874,
      "momentum": 0.21143334279642814,
      "diversity": -0.2657142857142857
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5103929169866247
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.07075471698113207,
    "share60": 0.05727051177904143,
    "total15": 317,
    "total60": 1230,
    "momentum": 1.2354476114010438,
    "diversity": 0.5285714285714286,
    "launches15": 22,
    "launches60": 70,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 37
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 129,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9938255555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9938255555555555
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5103929169866247
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 07:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.261

Log loss0.714

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.045188284518828455,
  "shareRatio": 0.7995505111601319,
  "totalAfter": 1195,
  "shareBefore": 0.05663430420711974,
  "totalBefore": 1236,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 54,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 70
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 51% that "cat" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 5.66% → 4.52% (-20%). INCORRECT.

— volume misled on "cat" (1H). volume contributed +0.40 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf03b06902223ec338a7ec892d3e663857542148563435488d7329bb7ae3549f8

Previous hashf0a3c0e1ec2a27b33f36828776968f080bfd2e830615b1f4709136fd5ca4f58c