Ledger / Prediction #3658 · narrative · 1H
Will "claudia" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 71% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
41 of 1230 launches in the last hour referenced "claudia" (23 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 3.03×.
Made2026-10-14 06:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 07:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 05:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3156201231405311,
"momentum": 1.109077405503316,
"diversity": -0.22682926829268285
},
"rawProbability": 0.7105112325525501
},
"features": {
"term": "claudia",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.10220125786163523,
"share60": 0.033712428919577576,
"total15": 317,
"total60": 1230,
"momentum": 3.0315602030764572,
"diversity": 0.5609756097560976,
"launches15": 32,
"launches60": 41,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 23
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 129,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9938255555555555,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9938255555555555
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.7105112325525501
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 07:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.505
Log loss1.240
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0066945606694560665,
"shareRatio": 0.21184067373171614,
"totalAfter": 1195,
"shareBefore": 0.03317152103559871,
"totalBefore": 1236,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 8,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 41
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 71% that "claudia" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 3.32% → 0.67% (-80%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "claudia" (1H). momentum contributed +1.11 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
4cb2f7a250ad97fe20825f4d751524a858dc00988b0263f12d13511e2a23ccbfPrevious hash
f03b06902223ec338a7ec892d3e663857542148563435488d7329bb7ae3549f8