Ledger / Prediction #366 · narrative · 6H

Will "cat" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

107 of 2460 launches in the last hour referenced "cat" (72 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 1.22×.

Made2026-10-09 22:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-10 04:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 21:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.4595086383041708,
      "momentum": 0.2022148659320987,
      "diversity": -0.09252336448598135
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5245901701722894
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "cat",
    "rank60": 2,
    "share15": 0.05347091932457786,
    "share60": 0.043681430312880944,
    "total15": 532,
    "total60": 2460,
    "momentum": 1.2241109996073127,
    "diversity": 0.6728971962616822,
    "launches15": 28,
    "launches60": 107,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 72
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 455,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946558333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991093055555555
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5245901701722894
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 04:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationPARTIAL

Brier0.275

Log loss0.744

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.039266450916936355,
  "shareRatio": 0.917109087590483,
  "totalAfter": 13905,
  "shareBefore": 0.0428219746048199,
  "totalBefore": 15436,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 546,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 661
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 52% that "cat" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 4.28% → 3.93% (-8%). PARTIAL.

— "cat" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashf68a08b9078476bc3b833824722b36ab1d4466695ac811df5fb9fb1c19601fda

Previous hash96f968d7da057a8b126a33347f10a52c822330fe03fa40f0374faced129d4b37