Ledger / Prediction #3663 · narrative · 6H

Will "inspired" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 34% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

17 of 1230 launches in the last hour referenced "inspired" (11 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.55×.

Made2026-10-14 06:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 12:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 05:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.18356631474331733,
      "momentum": -0.5923794056510365,
      "diversity": -0.12352941176470583
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.33790600842292423
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "inspired",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.007861635220125786,
    "share60": 0.01421608448415922,
    "total15": 317,
    "total60": 1230,
    "momentum": 0.5530098831985625,
    "diversity": 0.6470588235294118,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 17,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 129,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9938255555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.998970925925926
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.33790600842292423
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 12:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.114

Log loss0.412

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.003734956425508369,
  "shareRatio": 0.49745791004912476,
  "totalAfter": 7229,
  "shareBefore": 0.007594135639700453,
  "totalBefore": 9481,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 27,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 72
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 34% that "inspired" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.76% → 0.37% (-51%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "inspired" (6H). momentum contributed -0.59 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashab36f9a0f014a04d3f9528ea871174f7c4b97cd41b76299b9cd91d48955b6a6d

Previous hash64296eb71698e98a55558c8bf41ebeadcb568dc6223fb2f97a1d5dc50032f500