Will "tribute" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 19% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

16 of 1230 launches in the last hour referenced "tribute" (7 distinct creators, rank #14). Last 15m momentum 0.12×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.17447262147085213,
      "momentum": -2.1429768180622037,
      "diversity": -0.375
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.18667644972072917
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "tribute",
    "rank60": 14,
    "share15": 0.0015723270440251573,
    "share60": 0.013403736799350122,
    "total15": 317,
    "total60": 1230,
    "momentum": 0.11730512673908901,
    "diversity": 0.4375,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 16,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 129,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9938255555555555,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997427314814815
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.18667644972072917
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00034509107939559763,
  "shareRatio": 0.3665229305920051,
  "totalAfter": 40569,
  "shareBefore": 0.0009636784984971205,
  "totalBefore": 43583,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 14,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 42
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity