Will "tiktok" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 14% → FADES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

38 of 2460 launches in the last hour referenced "tiktok" (6 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.18×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3042222370938428,
      "momentum": -1.715391506960363,
      "diversity": -0.7105263157894736
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.14366383671578054
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "tiktok",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.0028142589118198874,
    "share60": 0.01564404713531085,
    "total15": 532,
    "total60": 2460,
    "momentum": 0.17989327745425304,
    "diversity": 0.15789473684210525,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 38,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 6
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 455,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946558333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991093055555555
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.14366383671578054
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.005393743257820928,
  "shareRatio": 0.9802605295539053,
  "totalAfter": 13905,
  "shareBefore": 0.005506607929515419,
  "totalBefore": 15436,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 75,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 85
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity