Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 30% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

28 of 1241 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (20 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.37×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2584149896611655,
      "momentum": -0.9824583600785182,
      "diversity": -0.04285714285714284
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3022027666095442
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dog",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.00859106529209622,
    "share60": 0.022946859903381644,
    "total15": 290,
    "total60": 1241,
    "momentum": 0.37438958220293,
    "diversity": 0.7142857142857143,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 28,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 20
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 118,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990736111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998456018518519
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3022027666095442
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.015777510362347907,
  "shareRatio": 1.1490324660227007,
  "totalAfter": 7479,
  "shareBefore": 0.013734466971877043,
  "totalBefore": 9174,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 118,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 126
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity