Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 40% → FADES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

27 of 1241 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (11 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.01×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2529598430355343,
      "momentum": 0.008771167550997407,
      "diversity": -0.41111111111111115
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.40021578844349104
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.022336769759450172,
    "share60": 0.02214170692431562,
    "total15": 290,
    "total60": 1241,
    "momentum": 1.0088097469540769,
    "diversity": 0.4074074074074074,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 27,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 118,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9990736111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998456018518519
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.40021578844349104
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.03583366760262067,
  "shareRatio": 1.118313238244827,
  "totalAfter": 7479,
  "shareBefore": 0.032047089601046436,
  "totalBefore": 9174,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 268,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 294
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity