GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #368 · narrative · 6H

Will "half" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES PARTIAL

What GENESIS knew, before

5 of 2460 launches in the last hour referenced "half" (3 distinct creators, rank #428). Last 15m momentum 2.10×.

Made2026-10-09 22:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 04:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 21:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0,
      "momentum": 0.7413442658609412,
      "diversity": -0.18000000000000002
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.5232185354035898
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "half",
    "rank60": 428,
    "share15": 0.004690431519699813,
    "share60": 0.0022348638764729785,
    "total15": 532,
    "total60": 2460,
    "momentum": 2.0987549036329525,
    "diversity": 0.6,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 5,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 3
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 455,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9946558333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9991093055555555
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.5232185354035898
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-10 04:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationPARTIAL
Brier0.274
Log loss0.741
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0016540812657317512,
  "shareRatio": 0.9486277996417505,
  "totalAfter": 13905,
  "shareBefore": 0.0017491578129048976,
  "totalBefore": 15436,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 23,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 27
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 52% that "half" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.17% → 0.17% (-5%). PARTIAL.

— "half" stayed roughly flat over 6H. Share changed by less than 10%; direction calls this close carry little information.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash60b3c52f3056e7c40a4dbececb59a75eeab60d85bfc5e3b91909ab128aa6582a
Previous hash4b1d14aa77fbe57c2f076c66cbfed2825d64604f21ba64b06c2c5dac8e5d2f06