Ledger / Prediction #3691 · narrative · 1H

Will "bot" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 25% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

22 of 1189 launches in the last hour referenced "bot" (14 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.42×.

Made2026-10-14 07:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 08:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 06:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.22224068113863232,
      "momentum": -0.8649089771388976,
      "diversity": -0.13636363636363638
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.253689258186406
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "bot",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.007961783439490446,
    "share60": 0.018907563025210083,
    "total15": 313,
    "total60": 1189,
    "momentum": 0.42108987968860584,
    "diversity": 0.6363636363636364,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 22,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 14
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 119,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957744444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957744444444444
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.253689258186406
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 08:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.064

Log loss0.293

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.006324110671936759,
  "shareRatio": 0.35688959101281376,
  "totalAfter": 1265,
  "shareBefore": 0.018410041841004185,
  "totalBefore": 1195,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 8,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 22
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 25% that "bot" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 1.84% → 0.63% (-66%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "bot" (1H). momentum contributed -0.86 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashb6253584f8fbbba89315b779888663a5732b1f8432897226e2fd011e390dfe03

Previous hash3724afc8582c1f63c3f069a58edfce11f757cc9d6f9ffc07162173a5c7af9934