Ledger / Prediction #3692 · narrative · 1H

Will "planet" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 33% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

9 of 1189 launches in the last hour referenced "planet" (7 distinct creators, rank #37). Last 15m momentum 0.60×.

Made2026-10-14 07:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 08:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 06:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.08816799973531786,
      "momentum": -0.5135110903010089,
      "diversity": 0.03333333333333335
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.33358614197061526
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "planet",
    "rank60": 37,
    "share15": 0.004777070063694267,
    "share60": 0.007983193277310924,
    "total15": 313,
    "total60": 1189,
    "momentum": 0.5983908816627557,
    "diversity": 0.7777777777777778,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 9,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 119,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957744444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9957744444444444
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.33358614197061526
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 08:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.111

Log loss0.406

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0023715415019762848,
  "shareRatio": 0.3480502203375738,
  "totalAfter": 1265,
  "shareBefore": 0.007531380753138075,
  "totalBefore": 1195,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 3,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 9
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 33% that "planet" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.75% → 0.24% (-69%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "planet" (1H). momentum contributed -0.51 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hasha4daffce7ca3d21f345ef192a85a5f8fca5e679033e70c172879fde1fa88a4b6

Previous hashb6253584f8fbbba89315b779888663a5732b1f8432897226e2fd011e390dfe03