Ledger / Prediction #3693 · narrative · 6H

Will "slopcore" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 40% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

25 of 1189 launches in the last hour referenced "slopcore" (11 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 0.97×.

Made2026-10-14 07:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 13:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 06:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.24141568686511503,
      "momentum": -0.03456067506546744,
      "diversity": -0.372
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.39756975212898144
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "slopcore",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.020700636942675158,
    "share60": 0.02142857142857143,
    "total15": 313,
    "total60": 1189,
    "momentum": 0.9660297239915073,
    "diversity": 0.44,
    "launches15": 6,
    "launches60": 25,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 11
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 119,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9957744444444444,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9992957407407408
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.39756975212898144
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 13:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.158

Log loss0.507

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0009180327868852459,
  "shareRatio": 0.34649264898721094,
  "totalAfter": 7625,
  "shareBefore": 0.0027830346209506847,
  "totalBefore": 8983,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 7,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 25
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 40% that "slopcore" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.28% → 0.09% (-67%). CORRECT.

— diversity pointed the right way on "slopcore" (6H). diversity contributed -0.37 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash5c38fa3f9d7cfd147e081839300a25dc3ceab17158cf917b71d047de07374d57

Previous hasha4daffce7ca3d21f345ef192a85a5f8fca5e679033e70c172879fde1fa88a4b6