Ledger / Prediction #37 · token · 1H

Will $rivaly still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 10% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 29m ago. X link, website. No hot term.

Made2026-10-09 07:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-09 08:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 07:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.09583022773245922
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "2rRX2RcK99PRaRBVByhgE9zN3SEqRKbKmGwNF5TVpump",
    "name": "rivaly.fun",
    "symbol": "rivaly",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 29,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 29,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3733.338992379835,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 2
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 399,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.09583022773245922
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-09 08:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.009

Log loss0.101

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": 0,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-09T08:01:31.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 3087.97777635726,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3733.338992379835,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3733.338992379835,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 7466.67798475967
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 10% that $rivaly would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,088, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $rivaly (1H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashe1a012c90d52db3875c3e5fb83a915ff7319fc86539eba47ec64f14baee67f23

Previous hash214722da7597f77051927ff43c0621405cf7d0b6d10cf3fb2a1dbbcb524aafe7