Ledger / Prediction #3702 · token · 6H

Will $GROKSLOP still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 5% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 20m ago. X link, website. No hot term. Creator launched 72 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-14 07:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 13:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 06:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0.4,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.04545816672765576
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "Gv7SFJG5eQgqyprVcykqbueMiKoYpMeXWhzd2PNceXsV",
    "name": "GrokSlop",
    "symbol": "GROKSLOP",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 20,
    "hasTwitter": true,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 3045.144112088702,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 72
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 405,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.04545816672765576
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 13:00 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.002

Log loss0.047

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": null,
  "marketCapUsd": 3045.144112088702,
  "athMarketCapUsd": null,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 3045.144112088702,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 6090.288224177404
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 5% that $GROKSLOP would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3,045, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $GROKSLOP (6H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash7025e6747036367c64254dce6f77ffe1463352833086db97ee591992af5c373d

Previous hashdad5d6251de844349114340df877bd3d9a3543bb3a709f06e53bc6f6a1fb7ccb