Ledger / Prediction #3705 · narrative · 1H

Will "hacchan" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 78% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

55 of 1254 launches in the last hour referenced "hacchan" (32 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 4.01×.

Made2026-10-14 07:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 08:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 07:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35968429091975557,
      "momentum": 1.388687661025731,
      "diversity": -0.20181818181818184
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7767027322378954
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "hacchan",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.17731629392971246,
    "share60": 0.044223107569721115,
    "total15": 312,
    "total60": 1254,
    "momentum": 4.0095846645367414,
    "diversity": 0.5818181818181818,
    "launches15": 55,
    "launches60": 55,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 32
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 112,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9926436111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9926436111111111
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7767027322378954
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 08:33 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationINCORRECT

Brier0.603

Log loss1.499

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0018674136321195146,
  "shareRatio": 0.05323887320155977,
  "totalAfter": 1071,
  "shareBefore": 0.04344391785150079,
  "totalBefore": 1266,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 2,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 55
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 78% that "hacchan" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 4.34% → 0.19% (-96%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "hacchan" (1H). momentum contributed +1.39 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

— Overconfident: 78% and wrong on "hacchan". Confidence this high should be wrong about 1 time in 4 or less; track this bucket.

2 memory records written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashafd6fec6b390a888903377d99b4243f9484e088555b1471c112bd6594ffb37dd

Previous hash8acd8a0fc067fc5a0a32dc23d32def18c58e182af22c267836c312ad91a5fe3a