GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3709 · narrative · 6H

Will "hacchan" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 69% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

55 of 1254 launches in the last hour referenced "hacchan" (32 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 4.01×.

Made2026-10-14 07:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 13:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 07:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.35968429091975557,
      "momentum": 1.388687661025731,
      "diversity": -0.20181818181818184
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6862375412668127
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "hacchan",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.17731629392971246,
    "share60": 0.044223107569721115,
    "total15": 312,
    "total60": 1254,
    "momentum": 4.0095846645367414,
    "diversity": 0.5818181818181818,
    "launches15": 55,
    "launches60": 55,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 32
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 112,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9926436111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987739351851852
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6862375412668127
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 13:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.471
Log loss1.159
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0012809017548354041,
  "shareRatio": 0.21315283008418254,
  "totalAfter": 7807,
  "shareBefore": 0.006252842201000455,
  "totalBefore": 8796,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 10,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 55
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 69% that "hacchan" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.63% → 0.13% (-80%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "hacchan" (6H). momentum contributed +1.39 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashdab31f1a5b51dd35a77744f3e56bb61ec5408d8acefd74bf05e99a15de386a61
Previous hashce206d1074e2fad0527163a9eef442a4968a7d5aba4c57a02a801e2b960ba652