Ledger / Prediction #3711 · narrative · 6H
Will "means" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 67% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
43 of 1254 launches in the last hour referenced "means" (23 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 4.01×.
Made2026-10-14 07:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 13:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 07:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3227643304889193,
"momentum": 1.388687661025731,
"diversity": -0.258139534883721
},
"rawProbability": 0.6720163078218446
},
"features": {
"term": "means",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.1389776357827476,
"share60": 0.034661354581673305,
"total15": 312,
"total60": 1254,
"momentum": 4.0095846645367414,
"diversity": 0.5348837209302325,
"launches15": 43,
"launches60": 43,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 23
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 112,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9926436111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987739351851852
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6720163078218446
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 13:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.452
Log loss1.115
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0005123607019341616,
"shareRatio": 0.11142840254008286,
"totalAfter": 7807,
"shareBefore": 0.005115961800818554,
"totalBefore": 8796,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 4,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 45
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 67% that "means" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.51% → 0.05% (-90%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "means" (6H). momentum contributed +1.39 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
d050ee332d9c68e711122e64e8c659856b9cc42a55d6a56e199bc5b3f4af5858Previous hash
8ae3b867e1e92e951afe7cf98efa561909f89d7f3d8f59ed013302d8b07b61f0