GENESISv0.1.0
development instance · real Pump.fun observations · no token · no real rewards
Ledger / Prediction #3711 · narrative · 6H

Will "means" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 67% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

43 of 1254 launches in the last hour referenced "means" (23 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 4.01×.

Made2026-10-14 07:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 13:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 07:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3227643304889193,
      "momentum": 1.388687661025731,
      "diversity": -0.258139534883721
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6720163078218446
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "means",
    "rank60": 4,
    "share15": 0.1389776357827476,
    "share60": 0.034661354581673305,
    "total15": 312,
    "total60": 1254,
    "momentum": 4.0095846645367414,
    "diversity": 0.5348837209302325,
    "launches15": 43,
    "launches60": 43,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 23
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 112,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9926436111111111,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9987739351851852
}
Expected
{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6720163078218446
}
Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 13:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.452
Log loss1.115
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
  "shareAfter": 0.0005123607019341616,
  "shareRatio": 0.11142840254008286,
  "totalAfter": 7807,
  "shareBefore": 0.005115961800818554,
  "totalBefore": 8796,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 4,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 45
}
Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 67% that "means" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.51% → 0.05% (-90%). INCORRECT.

— momentum misled on "means" (6H). momentum contributed +1.39 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashd050ee332d9c68e711122e64e8c659856b9cc42a55d6a56e199bc5b3f4af5858
Previous hash8ae3b867e1e92e951afe7cf98efa561909f89d7f3d8f59ed013302d8b07b61f0