Ledger / Prediction #3715 · narrative · 24H
Will "means" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 61% → ACCELERATES OPEN
What GENESIS knew, before
43 of 1254 launches in the last hour referenced "means" (23 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 4.01×.
Made2026-10-14 07:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 07:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 07:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3227643304889193,
"momentum": 1.388687661025731,
"diversity": -0.258139534883721
},
"rawProbability": 0.6050749246037923
},
"features": {
"term": "means",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.1389776357827476,
"share60": 0.034661354581673305,
"total15": 312,
"total60": 1254,
"momentum": 4.0095846645367414,
"diversity": 0.5348837209302325,
"launches15": 43,
"launches60": 43,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 23
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 112,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9926436111111111,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996934837962963
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6050749246037923
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 07:30 UTC.
Integrity
Hash
cde66d0f36b5acf1b74c1ca04f422cf102a02aeae5e93f40ae1d1d9ed8d894e7Previous hash
a342c709e124ff267470fbb3e1dc5e1c4a87114b0ee058c180ca70b6a88e4728