Ledger / Prediction #3719 · token · 1H

Will $GROK still have sustained attention 1H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 3% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 11m ago. No social links. Rides hot term "bot". Creator launched 5 tokens in the last hour.

Made2026-10-14 07:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 08:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 07:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0.3,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": -0.8
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.030935134330467174
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "4LWqM4K8fVnYRwz5o2U2ocSN65UFRVio1vsCmbWspump",
    "name": "GROK BOT",
    "symbol": "GROK",
    "hotTerms": [
      "bot"
    ],
    "ageMinutes": 11,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": false,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 0,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 10.934665747460528,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 5
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 439,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.030935134330467174
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 08:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.001

Log loss0.031

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-14T08:19:54.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2.6313952349360443,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 4030.374409883914,
  "tradedInFinal15m": true,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 10.934665747460528,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5000
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 3% that $GROK would sustain attention for 1H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $3, still trading). CORRECT.

— serialCreator pointed the right way on $GROK (1H). serialCreator contributed -0.80 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash32ee10d486a583e13e82efc551902fcb25b3d69e292568c0c542f249859c6548

Previous hash271987bfb38ed147c326eb9cfb77bd6065f49f43d3e653db1e70c00338b99bda