Ledger / Prediction #3725 · narrative · 6H
Will "wagmi" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 53% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
69 of 1262 launches in the last hour referenced "wagmi" (5 distinct creators, rank #2). Last 15m momentum 2.74×.
Made2026-10-14 08:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 14:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 07:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3937002888244739,
"momentum": 1.0077611742359924,
"diversity": -0.8130434782608695
},
"rawProbability": 0.5279439986293052
},
"features": {
"term": "wagmi",
"rank60": 2,
"share15": 0.15074626865671642,
"share60": 0.055027711797308,
"total15": 334,
"total60": 1262,
"momentum": 2.739460968538602,
"diversity": 0.07246376811594203,
"launches15": 50,
"launches60": 69,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 132,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9980002777777778,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996667129629629
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5279439986293052
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 14:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.279
Log loss0.751
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.00024755539051862855,
"shareRatio": 0.03223516370041912,
"totalAfter": 8079,
"shareBefore": 0.009540636042402828,
"totalBefore": 8490,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 2,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 81
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 53% that "wagmi" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.95% → 0.02% (-97%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "wagmi" (6H). momentum contributed +1.01 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
743146542e4185e61dada527df8c50547c92b97e0a539a166eef301fed23a256Previous hash
6b8abb332c57a9a64372f5970a15ed7dc3aa756630d24b143ec0bae61e286d2d