Ledger / Prediction #3728 · narrative · 6H

Will "pay" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 48% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

8 of 1262 launches in the last hour referenced "pay" (7 distinct creators, rank #53). Last 15m momentum 1.11×.

Made2026-10-14 08:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 14:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 07:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.07050054438686033,
      "momentum": 0.10333915890330896,
      "diversity": 0.15
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4816801526169965
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pay",
    "rank60": 53,
    "share15": 0.007462686567164179,
    "share60": 0.006730007917656373,
    "total15": 334,
    "total60": 1262,
    "momentum": 1.1088674275680421,
    "diversity": 0.875,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 8,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 7
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "random-eligible",
  "candidates": 132,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9980002777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9996667129629629
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4816801526169965
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 14:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.232

Log loss0.657

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0016091100383710856,
  "shareRatio": 0.42348344909117774,
  "totalAfter": 8079,
  "shareBefore": 0.0038869257950530037,
  "totalBefore": 8490,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 13,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 33
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 48% that "pay" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.39% → 0.16% (-59%). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on "pay" (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash8289882f307b57c40ebc18bb4a93423ab1dcc7102e719bbc9eb156af996d9419

Previous hash1a8bbba28881d61ed06ac13a95ce8e441e246589fa0eab4102a8bf6646521a31