Ledger / Prediction #373 · narrative · 1H
Will "quantum" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 58% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
225 of 2436 launches in the last hour referenced "quantum" (137 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 1.23×.
Made2026-10-09 22:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-09 23:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 22:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.570999373465548,
"momentum": 0.20579299511242505,
"diversity": -0.16933333333333328
},
"rawProbability": 0.576264919600539
},
"features": {
"term": "quantum",
"rank60": 1,
"share15": 0.11367521367521367,
"share60": 0.09253180139515799,
"total15": 584,
"total60": 2436,
"momentum": 1.2284988724013113,
"diversity": 0.6088888888888889,
"launches15": 66,
"launches60": 225,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 137
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 390,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9918497222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9918497222222222
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.576264919600539
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-09 23:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.332
Log loss0.859
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.05024509803921569,
"shareRatio": 0.5468123674392485,
"totalAfter": 2448,
"shareBefore": 0.09205702647657842,
"totalBefore": 2455,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 123,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 226
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 58% that "quantum" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 9.21% → 5.02% (-45%). INCORRECT.
— volume misled on "quantum" (1H). volume contributed +0.57 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
5cf1d120806bcaf3b3ff79b2b2e3b1e9c04a30b7699ff6050850e12414124148Previous hash
84d0672ea5b937b76de131b6a08b744e524a28c231bc3e6f50e58d486b398ae9