Will "wrong" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 14% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

43 of 1262 launches in the last hour referenced "wrong" (23 distinct creators, rank #8). Last 15m momentum 0.04×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3227643304889193,
      "momentum": -3.138793528129159,
      "diversity": -0.258139534883721
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.13739648448016994
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "wrong",
    "rank60": 8,
    "share15": 0.0014925373134328358,
    "share60": 0.0344418052256532,
    "total15": 334,
    "total60": 1262,
    "momentum": 0.04333504889346372,
    "diversity": 0.5348837209302325,
    "launches15": 0,
    "launches60": 43,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 23
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 132,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9980002777777778,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9999166782407407
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.13739648448016994
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 08:00 UTC.

Integrity