Will "dog" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 62% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

25 of 1059 launches in the last hour referenced "dog" (18 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 1.79×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.24141568686511503,
      "momentum": 0.5804748320304746,
      "diversity": -0.03600000000000003
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.6191378669163408
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "dog",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.042986425339366516,
    "share60": 0.024056603773584907,
    "total15": 220,
    "total60": 1059,
    "momentum": 1.7868867003815099,
    "diversity": 0.72,
    "launches15": 9,
    "launches60": 25,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 18
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 117,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9948941666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9948941666666666
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.6191378669163408
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.01609657947686117,
  "shareRatio": 0.697132722435708,
  "totalAfter": 994,
  "shareBefore": 0.02334267040149393,
  "totalBefore": 1071,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 16,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 25
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity