Ledger / Prediction #3745 · narrative · 24H
Will "agent" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?
GENESIS said 52% → ACCELERATES OPEN
What GENESIS knew, before
16 of 1059 launches in the last hour referenced "agent" (16 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 1.31×.
Made2026-10-14 08:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-15 08:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 08:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.5,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.17447262147085213,
"momentum": 0.2685785014580992,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.5178737709715026
},
"features": {
"term": "agent",
"rank60": 7,
"share15": 0.020361990950226245,
"share60": 0.015566037735849057,
"total15": 220,
"total60": 1059,
"momentum": 1.3081036610448376,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 4,
"launches60": 16,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 16
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 117,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9948941666666666,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997872569444445
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5178737709715026
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 08:30 UTC.
Integrity
Hash
d386b1ecf21d027fad86d59e68b4bb39da498e624895ee5e7cc30cdf595bb839Previous hash
855e90dc20e3840405be9cce402b919db6362a605ac80f1cf18474d609d087fa