Will "ride" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 36% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

14 of 1059 launches in the last hour referenced "ride" (4 distinct creators, rank #9). Last 15m momentum 0.83×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.1544429125771737,
      "momentum": -0.18999643196401378,
      "diversity": -0.5571428571428572
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3551796144534284
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "ride",
    "rank60": 9,
    "share15": 0.011312217194570135,
    "share60": 0.013679245283018868,
    "total15": 220,
    "total60": 1059,
    "momentum": 0.8269620845685753,
    "diversity": 0.2857142857142857,
    "launches15": 2,
    "launches60": 14,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 4
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 117,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9948941666666666,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9997872569444445
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3551796144534284
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 08:30 UTC.

Integrity