Ledger / Prediction #3753 · narrative · 1H

Will "uxento" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 40% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

64 of 997 launches in the last hour referenced "uxento" (37 distinct creators, rank #1). Last 15m momentum 0.76×.

Made2026-10-14 09:00 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 10:00 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 08:59 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodshare-direction-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.3824167756388357,
      "momentum": -0.2749933597124504,
      "diversity": -0.20625
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.4015942982919885
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "uxento",
    "rank60": 1,
    "share15": 0.04909090909090909,
    "share60": 0.06462925851703406,
    "total15": 274,
    "total60": 997,
    "momentum": 0.7595771670190274,
    "diversity": 0.578125,
    "launches15": 13,
    "launches60": 64,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 37
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 112,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918341666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9918341666666667
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.4015942982919885
}

Engine narrative-heuristic-v0

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 10:03 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.161

Log loss0.513

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "shareAfter": 0.04271123491179202,
  "shareRatio": 0.6701039823963413,
  "totalAfter": 1077,
  "shareBefore": 0.06393606393606394,
  "totalBefore": 1001,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 46,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 64
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 40% that "uxento" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 6.39% → 4.27% (-33%). CORRECT.

— momentum pointed the right way on "uxento" (1H). momentum contributed -0.27 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hash1c040d736d190f5541e939aa87e60b682575e0611ea6b59bfc4ba3a82b122fac

Previous hashb4864317b5f189f66ffa27b71281a8fdf0f257333568b508182976a8abd9bf77