Will "buddy" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 58% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

35 of 997 launches in the last hour referenced "buddy" (33 distinct creators, rank #3). Last 15m momentum 1.48×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.291886522358297,
      "momentum": 0.3935981315900512,
      "diversity": 0.2314285714285714
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.584637231338266
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "buddy",
    "rank60": 3,
    "share15": 0.05272727272727273,
    "share60": 0.03557114228456914,
    "total15": 274,
    "total60": 997,
    "momentum": 1.482304737516005,
    "diversity": 0.9428571428571428,
    "launches15": 14,
    "launches60": 35,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 33
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 112,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918341666666667,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9986390277777778
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.584637231338266
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.0036811227424364433,
  "shareRatio": 0.8331470303301289,
  "totalAfter": 8693,
  "shareBefore": 0.004424219441284288,
  "totalBefore": 7911,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 32,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 35
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity