Ledger / Prediction #3760 · narrative · 6H
Will "giga" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 48% → FADES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 997 launches in the last hour referenced "giga" (5 distinct creators, rank #114). Last 15m momentum 0.99×.
Made2026-10-14 09:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 15:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 08:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": -0.010300805485368105,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.47571647908654274
},
"features": {
"term": "giga",
"rank60": 114,
"share15": 0.005454545454545455,
"share60": 0.005511022044088177,
"total15": 274,
"total60": 997,
"momentum": 0.9897520661157025,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 1,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 112,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9918341666666667,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9986390277777778
}Expected
{
"direction": "down",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.47571647908654274
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 15:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.275
Log loss0.743
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0032209823996318877,
"shareRatio": 2.4701436130007557,
"totalAfter": 8693,
"shareBefore": 0.0012640626975097965,
"totalBefore": 7911,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 28,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 10
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 48% that "giga" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.13% → 0.32% (+155%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "giga" (6H). momentum contributed -0.01 to the log-odds toward no; reality was yes.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
7f0e8b5b2daaa2c9be38ca9e0c81bdc32cc7926b8a88342e6af16298bed314cfPrevious hash
a911bf9a405c722f928fa839b472d02cd94f7e15467532fc728fd675aa7fc051