Will "tech" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 30% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

20 of 991 launches in the last hour referenced "tech" (20 distinct creators, rank #5). Last 15m momentum 0.34×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.2079441541679836,
      "momentum": -1.0765288364607504,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.295548885492267
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "tech",
    "rank60": 5,
    "share15": 0.007042253521126761,
    "share60": 0.02066532258064516,
    "total15": 212,
    "total60": 991,
    "momentum": 0.340776365510134,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 20,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 20
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 108,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968783333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9968783333333333
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.295548885492267
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.004156275976724855,
  "shareRatio": 0.22172028198687305,
  "totalAfter": 1203,
  "shareBefore": 0.02012072434607646,
  "totalBefore": 994,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 20
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity