Will "clawpump" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?

GENESIS said 31% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

18 of 991 launches in the last hour referenced "clawpump" (18 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 0.38×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 1,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.19214007681930967,
      "momentum": -0.973874682400667,
      "diversity": 0.3
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.3139461593089481
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "clawpump",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.007042253521126761,
    "share60": 0.018649193548387098,
    "total15": 212,
    "total60": 991,
    "momentum": 0.3776170536733917,
    "diversity": 1,
    "launches15": 1,
    "launches60": 18,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 18
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 108,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968783333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9968783333333333
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.3139461593089481
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.004156275976724855,
  "shareRatio": 0.24569004220167015,
  "totalAfter": 1203,
  "shareBefore": 0.018108651911468814,
  "totalBefore": 994,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 18
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity