Ledger / Prediction #3772 · narrative · 1H
Will "code" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 1H than in the previous 1H?
GENESIS said 75% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
5 of 991 launches in the last hour referenced "code" (5 distinct creators, rank #96). Last 15m momentum 2.96×.
Made2026-10-14 09:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 10:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 09:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 1,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0,
"momentum": 1.0864458178323906,
"diversity": 0.3
},
"rawProbability": 0.7477118552815765
},
"features": {
"term": "code",
"rank60": 96,
"share15": 0.01643192488262911,
"share60": 0.005544354838709678,
"total15": 212,
"total60": 991,
"momentum": 2.963721724285105,
"diversity": 1,
"launches15": 3,
"launches60": 5,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 5
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "random-eligible",
"candidates": 108,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9968783333333333,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9968783333333333
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.7477118552815765
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 10:33 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.559
Log loss1.377
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.0033250207813798837,
"shareRatio": 0.6761552401087285,
"totalAfter": 1203,
"shareBefore": 0.005030181086519115,
"totalBefore": 994,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 4,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 5
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 75% that "code" would gain share over 1H. Its share of launches moved 0.50% → 0.33% (-34%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "code" (1H). momentum contributed +1.09 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
161e90c6313c6b664689447553aed7e01cb2142d57e77867451d8931f7cf02bfPrevious hash
79aa007af76759020980216a6a23443453efdde8cffdc0441548658a3fbd8576