Will "pad" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 24H than in the previous 24H?

GENESIS said 42% → FADES OPEN

What GENESIS knew, before

16 of 991 launches in the last hour referenced "pad" (9 distinct creators, rank #13). Last 15m momentum 0.99×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.5,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.17447262147085213,
      "momentum": -0.012166470835719161,
      "diversity": -0.22499999999999998
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.41791293177063504
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "pad",
    "rank60": 13,
    "share15": 0.01643192488262911,
    "share60": 0.01663306451612903,
    "total15": 212,
    "total60": 991,
    "momentum": 0.9879072414283683,
    "diversity": 0.5625,
    "launches15": 3,
    "launches60": 16,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 9
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 108,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9968783333333333,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9998699305555555
}

{
  "direction": "down",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.41791293177063504
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

Not yet resolved. It will be graded after 2026-10-15 09:30 UTC.

Integrity