Ledger / Prediction #378 · narrative · 6H
Will "aura" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 69% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
67 of 2436 launches in the last hour referenced "aura" (40 distinct creators, rank #4). Last 15m momentum 3.92×.
Made2026-10-09 22:30 UTC
Resolves2026-10-10 04:30 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-09 22:29 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.3892882060435298,
"momentum": 1.3658235144135116,
"diversity": -0.18358208955223887
},
"rawProbability": 0.6899896132455677
},
"features": {
"term": "aura",
"rank60": 4,
"share15": 0.10854700854700855,
"share60": 0.02769798933114485,
"total15": 584,
"total60": 2436,
"momentum": 3.9189490345045903,
"diversity": 0.5970149253731343,
"launches15": 63,
"launches60": 67,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 40
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 390,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9918497222222222,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9986416203703704
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.6899896132455677
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-10 04:34 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeFADED
ClassificationINCORRECT
Brier0.476
Log loss1.171
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.002140221402214022,
"shareRatio": 0.3738535447918869,
"totalAfter": 13550,
"shareBefore": 0.0057908777409070205,
"totalBefore": 15369,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 29,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 89
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 69% that "aura" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.58% → 0.21% (-63%). INCORRECT.
— momentum misled on "aura" (6H). momentum contributed +1.37 to the log-odds toward yes; reality was no.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
1e9fd82581277269c26fe4d6869c4316a2248b31c5b01bb30d59dcdebf5c7bcfPrevious hash
5a226891a3a42858264122021c647b5b8e455b161162e1a15384128f473d5183