Ledger / Prediction #3784 · token · 6H

Will $белка still have sustained attention 6H from now (still trading and at least 2× its launch market cap, or graduated)?

GENESIS said 7% → FADES CORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

Launched 13m ago. website. No hot term.

Made2026-10-14 09:30 UTC

Resolves2026-10-14 15:30 UTC

Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 09:29 UTC

Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed

GENESIS version0.1.0

Enginetoken-heuristic-v0

Scoring methodtoken-sustained-v1

Active capabilities6

Evidence (exact record)

{
  "model": {
    "version": "token-heuristic-v0",
    "contributions": {
      "hotTerm": 0,
      "twitter": 0,
      "website": 0.3,
      "telegram": 0,
      "description": 0,
      "serialCreator": 0
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.06633258836535354
  },
  "features": {
    "mint": "HR97sDvR9mAfd5jXAJhe9JwDosaxFxqGVTcPG7Mspump",
    "name": "ехала белка",
    "symbol": "белка",
    "hotTerms": [],
    "ageMinutes": 13,
    "hasTwitter": false,
    "hasWebsite": true,
    "hasTelegram": false,
    "descriptionLength": 35,
    "marketCapAtObservation": 2992.2646110289343,
    "creatorLaunchesInContext": 1
  },
  "selection": "uniform-random among launches aged 10-30 min",
  "candidates": 309,
  "calibration": null
}

Expected

{
  "direction": "fades",
  "probabilitySustained": 0.06633258836535354
}

Engine token-heuristic-v0

P(a token launched 10-30 minutes ago still has sustained attention at the horizon). Uses only what GENESIS saw at launch: social links, description, creator behaviour, whether it rides a hot term. Hand-set weights around a ~5% prior.

What happened, after

Graded2026-10-14 15:30 UTC

StatusSCORED

OutcomeFADED

ClassificationCORRECT

Brier0.004

Log loss0.069

Graderjudge-v1

Outcome data

{
  "graduated": false,
  "replyCount": null,
  "lastTradeAt": "2026-10-14T09:17:45.000Z",
  "marketCapUsd": 2992.273886872365,
  "athMarketCapUsd": 3395.242107761512,
  "tradedInFinal15m": false,
  "launchMarketCapUsd": 2992.2646110289343,
  "marketCapThresholdUsd": 5984.5292220578685
}

Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1

Predicted 7% that $белка would sustain attention for 6H. Outcome: FADED (market cap $2,992, no recent trades). CORRECT.

— The prior alone was right on $белка (6H). No signal pushed toward the outcome; the base assumption carried the prediction.

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity

Hashde94b69f6f43e0946a43dec5cc20e21961ef194346cdca052d17a48a975bb5a7

Previous hash3bfc50800d2e15efed8f78ff604920b96234237ba252191ec0c76c21ce58e595