Will "farmer" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?

GENESIS said 70% → ACCELERATES INCORRECT

What GENESIS knew, before

52 of 2436 launches in the last hour referenced "farmer" (34 distinct creators, rank #6). Last 15m momentum 4.17×.

{
  "model": {
    "bias": -0.3,
    "version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
    "horizonScale": 0.7,
    "contributions": {
      "volume": 0.351270870922099,
      "momentum": 1.4269112063933498,
      "diversity": -0.11538461538461536
    },
    "rawProbability": 0.7034869767073672
  },
  "features": {
    "term": "farmer",
    "rank60": 6,
    "share15": 0.08974358974358974,
    "share60": 0.021542880590890438,
    "total15": 584,
    "total60": 2436,
    "momentum": 4.165811965811966,
    "diversity": 0.6538461538461539,
    "launches15": 52,
    "launches60": 52,
    "contextMinutes": 60,
    "uniqueCreators60": 34
  },
  "extractor": "terms-v2",
  "selection": "top-volume",
  "candidates": 390,
  "calibration": null,
  "methodology": "attention-v1",
  "termHistory": null,
  "contextCoverage": 0.9918497222222222,
  "memoriesRecalled": 0,
  "priorWindowCoverage": 0.9986416203703704
}

{
  "direction": "up",
  "magnitude": null,
  "magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
  "probabilityUp": 0.7034869767073672
}

P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.

What happened, after

{
  "shareAfter": 0.00036900369003690036,
  "shareRatio": 0.11446394490673698,
  "totalAfter": 13550,
  "shareBefore": 0.0035135662697638103,
  "totalBefore": 15369,
  "coverageAfter": 1,
  "launchesAfter": 5,
  "coverageBefore": 1,
  "launchesBefore": 54
}

1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).

Integrity