Ledger / Prediction #3790 · narrative · 6H
Will "money" take a larger share of new Pump.fun launches in the next 6H than in the previous 6H?
GENESIS said 59% → ACCELERATES CORRECT
What GENESIS knew, before
23 of 1068 launches in the last hour referenced "money" (15 distinct creators, rank #7). Last 15m momentum 2.26×.
Made2026-10-14 10:00 UTC
Resolves2026-10-14 16:00 UTC
Evidence cutoff2026-10-14 09:59 UTC
Data sourcespumpfun.launch_feed
GENESIS version0.1.0
Enginenarrative-heuristic-v0
Scoring methodshare-direction-v1
Active capabilities6
Evidence (exact record)
{
"model": {
"bias": -0.3,
"version": "narrative-heuristic-v0",
"horizonScale": 0.7,
"contributions": {
"volume": 0.22890844552425738,
"momentum": 0.816048195206303,
"diversity": -0.11739130434782608
},
"rawProbability": 0.5864467861913071
},
"features": {
"term": "money",
"rank60": 7,
"share15": 0.04971590909090909,
"share60": 0.021983161833489244,
"total15": 351,
"total60": 1068,
"momentum": 2.26154497098646,
"diversity": 0.6521739130434783,
"launches15": 17,
"launches60": 23,
"contextMinutes": 60,
"uniqueCreators60": 15
},
"extractor": "terms-v2",
"selection": "top-volume",
"candidates": 111,
"calibration": null,
"methodology": "attention-v1",
"termHistory": null,
"contextCoverage": 0.9938175,
"memoriesRecalled": 0,
"priorWindowCoverage": 0.9989695833333333
}Expected
{
"direction": "up",
"magnitude": null,
"magnitudeNote": "v0 does not model magnitude",
"probabilityUp": 0.5864467861913071
}Engine narrative-heuristic-v0
P(term's share of new Pump.fun launches is higher in the next H than in the previous H). Hand-set logistic heuristic over 60 minutes of launch observations: short-term momentum, creator diversity, volume. Slight mean-reversion prior because candidates are selected while already popular.
What happened, after
Graded2026-10-14 16:03 UTC
StatusSCORED
OutcomeACCELERATED
ClassificationCORRECT
Brier0.171
Log loss0.534
Graderjudge-v1
Outcome data
{
"shareAfter": 0.009768378650553878,
"shareRatio": 1.386684628793041,
"totalAfter": 9930,
"shareBefore": 0.0070122370411109585,
"totalBefore": 7273,
"coverageAfter": 1,
"launchesAfter": 97,
"coverageBefore": 1,
"launchesBefore": 51
}Post-outcome analysis · judge-v1
Predicted 59% that "money" would gain share over 6H. Its share of launches moved 0.70% → 0.98% (+39%). CORRECT.
— momentum pointed the right way on "money" (6H). momentum contributed +0.82 to the log-odds and the outcome agreed.
1 memory record written (sealed: written while memory was short-context only).
Integrity
Hash
c1235b1c25729835ecdf0fc3823e956d6199afa6b0a5dc0381fada8136206f9cPrevious hash
ea5d24ad4377c0678aa8e95dd43eb5a7d577204155c116417465df1301c7eb25